New centre tracks COVID-19 social fracture

The Centre for Analytics and Behavioural Change, incubated by the Allan Gray Centre for Values-Based Leadership at the University of Cape Town (UCT) Graduate School of Business, has launched a six-month project that will use social media analytics and advocacy to combat the spread of misinformation about the coronavirus in South Africa and beyond.

Associate Professor Camaren Peter and Stuart Jones both have experience in tracking the viral spread of information. Now, just two months after launching the Centre for Analytics and Behavioural Change, they and their team are embarking on a ZAR6-million project to combat the spread of fake news about an actual virus: COVID-19.

An antidote to misinformation

Over the next six months, the team of 26 – among them psychologists, criminologists and sustainability experts – plan to use social media analytics to track and counter the spread of fake news and polarising rhetoric about COVID-19 in South Africa and other parts of Africa, as well as monitor related incidences of social unrest and collective violence.

These findings will be publicly available as well as shared with government in the form of daily, weekly and thematic reports.

“The centre officially opened its doors two months ago. Little did we know that our first order of business would be to tackle misinformation about a global pandemic.”

The team is also working on a predictive model that will help to identify likely hotpots of collective violence in the coming months. They hope to encourage healthy online dialogue by empowering and amplifying the voices of active citizens whose values align with the centre’s aims of encouraging tolerance and social cohesion.

Peter, who trained as a physicist, is an expert in sustainability and complexity theory. He met Jones in 2017 after he noted with concern how quickly disinformation campaigns (such as the one orchestrated by Bell Pottinger) spread fake news online. This spurred Peter to formally establish the Centre for Analytics and Behavioural Change as a non-profit organisation.

Jones has owned and run the marketing research company Vibrand for the past 15 years, but more recently has developed an interest in social research using social media analytics. In 2016, he co-founded the Citizen Dialogue Centre, which aims to use social media to unite communities and foster healthy online dialogue.

In 2017, Jones and Peter, with support from the Allan Gray Centre for Values-Based Leadership at the UCT Graduate School of Business, teamed up and merged efforts under the Centre for Analytics and Behavioural Change.

“The centre officially opened its doors two months ago. Little did we know that our first order of business would be to tackle misinformation about a global pandemic,” says Jones.

The core mission of the centre is to build healthy online communities by countering online polarisation, divisive rhetoric and narrative manipulation. As Peter explains, the online realm is currently flooded with examples of such fake news related to COVID-19.

“Our long-term goal is to bring about healthy conversations in the online realm so that we can have healthier politics in real life.”

“For example: on the first day of lockdown there was a fake document that did the rounds that claimed that the government would only provide financial aid for South African businesses, which turned out to be a deliberate attempt to sow division,” he says.

“To date the government has been doing a good job of countering fake news, but it has quickly become clear that the major issues coming to the fore are ones of social fracture around lockdown and perceptions of privilege versus poverty in what lockdown means to different economic classes in South Africa.”

Identifying emerging narratives

Jones explains that there are two broad areas in which the centre works: analysis and advocacy.

“The analysis component of our work includes using social media analytics to monitor trends in social cohesion or specific topics, such as gender-based violence in lockdown,” he says. “To create reports, we use Brandwatch, a cutting-edge social intelligence platform that monitors all public social media, including Twitter, public profiles on Instagram and chat groups and forums, including Reddit.

“We are also in the process of building a predictive model that tracks the use of specific terms on social media and uses thresholds to predict the likelihood of outbreaks of collective violence. One way in which we do this is to recruit interested citizens on WhatsApp groups who then monitor hate speech in their areas. We hope to have this predictive model ready in the next month.”

In Peter’s opinion, there is great value in sharing these analyses with government and civil society organisations as a way of better understanding the drivers of dissatisfaction that lead to polarisation and public unrest.

“Even without getting into the activism side of things, just the analytics are very useful,” he explains.

“The COVID-19 crisis in South Africa may lead to several semi-lockdowns, in which case a better understanding of how people are reacting provides invaluable insights for both public officials as well as private-sector actors who can provide support.”

“We will be identifying protagonists who are value-aligned with us and offering to stand beside them in the work they are already doing.”

When it comes to the advocacy and activism component of the centre’s work, Jones explains that the research methodologies they use can identify both the protagonists and antagonists participating in debates online.

“We will be identifying protagonists who are value-aligned with us and offering to stand beside them in the work they are already doing. We want to amplify those voices as a way of encouraging healthy dialogue, even amongst people who may disagree.”

Active citizenship and healthy dialogue

But this is just one part of a much broader vision, according to Peter.

“We recognise that the issue of mis- and disinformation and fake news is a global problem being driven by both internal and external actors who are exerting asymmetric power over the politics of different countries.

“As a non-profit organisation, our long-term goal is to bring about healthy conversations in the online realm so that we can have healthier politics in real life. We want to create platforms for people to organise around and methodologies that can be used for analysis. We also want to make this all open source and share it with similar groups around the world so that they can open centres in their own political spheres.

“Our big hairy audacious goal is to help create a global network of engaged citizens who are actively resisting divisive influences.”

In the meantime, Jones believes the COVID-19 crisis may lead to both beneficial and destructive narratives.

“Whatever the case, we want to be right there analysing and reporting on them and encouraging active citizens on social media to participate in the generation of these narratives so that something positive comes out of this.

“I think there is the opportunity in this current crisis to bring people together or push them further away. The hope is that this will bring humanity together, which means we would also be better poised to deal with other global problems, such as climate change.”

Master of Arts student Ms Kayleigh Gemmell is set to have her animated film The Next Few Months premiere at the first virtual Annecy International Animation Film Festival. Her film is one of four to be selected from South Africa. Annecy is a competition between cartoon films of various techniques (animated drawings, cut-out papers, modelling clay, computer generated imagery, etc.).

The film forms the practical component of Gemmell’s Master’s thesis in digital art and animation studies, the topic of which is animated documentaries and whether or not they can be considered viable forms through which to represent documentary narratives.

As such, the film itself is a highly personal animated documentary dealing with the after-effects of terminal illness: more specifically, on Gemmell’s father, who was diagnosed with Cancer in 2018. The film documents his diagnosis and treatment from the perspectives of those closest to him, using different styles of animation to represent the results and effects of the treatments on the mind and body.

‘The biggest challenge of the film was grappling with the subject matter, which was incredibly personal. While the film was cathartic in the sense that it allowed me the space to process and deal with my father’s diagnosis, it was also very painful to relive, re-work and re-present some of the most difficult times for my father, myself and my family members lives,’ said Gemmell.

She sees Annecy as important for students ‘because they are sites for learning, growth and inspiration.’ Gemmell was nominated in the graduation films category. ‘The festival provides a platform for graduates to showcase work that may normally go unrecognised (due to a lack of funds, marketing or experience) – ultimately giving students access to an international network of interested and like-minded individuals who are willing to provide anything from support to education and job opportunities.’

Gemmell advised other filmmakers and artists to work hard and smart. It is very easy to get bogged down by the process and its difficulties, and it’s just as easy to be distracted by more ‘interesting’ ideas or whims. We have to learn to focus on the end goal but allow the process itself to occur as naturally as possible,’ she said. ‘Give yourself more credit and believe in yourself and your work. We are often unable to see the potential greatness in ourselves and that stops us from taking necessary risks and making the most of the opportunities we are presented with.’

Asked about what the future holds for her, Gemmell said, ‘I plan to travel and gain more experience within the field of teaching. I am currently teaching English in Zhongshan city in China; an experience that I hope will broaden my horizons and provide me with the skills to become a better teacher and lecturer.’

The film can be viewed on video platform Vimeo https://vimeo.com/368453877

FOR MORE INFORMATION, PLEASE CONTACT:

Kayleigh Gemmell

kaypaigegemmell@gmail.com

082 414 8569

079 574 2173